997
FXUS62 KKEY 170219
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1019 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THIS EVENING SHIFT HAS BEEN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TWENTY FOUR HOURS
AGO. OUR KBYX RADAR WAS BUSY DETECTING WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF
PERSISTENT CLOUDLINES OFF OF THE LOWER KEYS. AROUND 2 PM LOCAL
TIME, WE RECEIVED A REPORT FROM BROADCAST MEDIA OF A WATERSPOUT
JUST SOUTH OF BOW CHANNEL BRIDGE, EAST OF UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY. THE
WATERSPOUT APPEARED MATURE, AND NARROW, WITH A VISIBLE SPRAY RING
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WAS MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND WE COULD HEAR OUR SHARE OF THUNDER
WHILE INSIDE OUR OFFICE. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST PROFILE
WITH PREVAILING EASTERLIES WITH ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF INHIBITION
NEAR THE SURFACE, HOWEVER THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT
BEING RECENTLY WORKED OVER. THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
ADVERTISES 30 PERCENT POPS FOR TONIGHT, AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIMSS VORTICITY SHOWS LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND IT LOOKS TO BE NUDGING OUR WAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET SOME MORE ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS OUR MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT FRESHENING OF BREEZES SOME TIME OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BUT THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE
SINCE THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE
ERIN. OTHERWISE, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
OCCASIONAL OBSERVATIONS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY MEANS
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE TIMING OF ACTIVITY ONSITE, SO WE WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF
PACKAGE FOR NOW. BACKGROUND SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF
THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 92 82 92 / 40 30 40 30
MARATHON 82 90 82 90 / 30 30 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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