941
FXUS62 KKEY 170816
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
416 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KBYX RADAR DEPICTS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WATERS SOUTH
OF THE LOWER KEYS, WHILE ELSEWHERE REMAINS QUIET THIS EARLY
MORNING. SKIES ON NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
CONDITIONS FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 70S MAKING FOR A MUGGY EARLY MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE REEF. FOR TODAY,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. THESE LIGHT BREEZES COULD
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER KEYS
LATER TODAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW
WATERSPOUTS. OUTSIDE OF CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT, CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK,
PROVIDING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THAT WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE. WITH MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT, CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED OR ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WHEN IT OCCURS.
FARTHER EAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC AND REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO,
MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEMS WESTERN SIDE COULD SLIGHTLY
ELEVATE RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK, THOUGH NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY. STAY TUNED FOR ANY
UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025 NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID,
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON FROM ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, VCSH IS CURRENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE. LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1886, A TROPICAL STORM INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE
AS IT MOVED WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE STRAITS ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH
OF KEY WEST, WHERE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.68" WAS RECORDED, ALONG
WITH A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH AND NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A
MAN WAS KILLED WHEN A BUILDING COLLAPSED ON DUVAL STREET.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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