778
FXUS62 KKEY 180213
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL AFTERNOON TRANSITIONED TO A DAMP EVENING
FOR THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS SHIFTED JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY CLOUD LINES TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY PULSED UP BEFORE SUNSET AND NEARLY
AN INCH OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT THE KEYW AIRPORT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS FORMED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SURGED INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS, BUT BY LATE EVENING ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA ON KBYX RADAR. THE EVENING KKEY SOUNDING
INDICATES AN EXPECTED DROP IN SHOWER FORMATION. MEASURED PWAT
DECREASED BY NEARLY 0.3", AND THE VALUE WAS BELOW THE 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. LAYERS BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB FEATURED
PATCHES OF DRY AIR AMIDST NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE ERIN. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION IS BOTH LARGE AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO DIRECT WARMER,
SINKING AIR TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PULLING BACK TO LOOK AT
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS ACROSS THE KEYS, A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN PWAT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA, 1.3" PWAT OVER
THE STRAITS BECOMES 1.8" OVER THE GULFSIDE WATERS. THE CONCLUSION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE KEYS.
LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT WINDS TO BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THORUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT ANY ASPIRING STARGAZERS CAN EXPECT A NEARLY
CLOUD FREE SKY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING 00Z
TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SPARSE. EXPECT NEAR SURFACE
WINDS TO BE VARIABLE, OCCASIONALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRAY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, AND A REVERSE CLOUD LINE IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LOOKING AHEAD, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK,
PROVIDING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THAT WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE. WITH MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT, CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED OR ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WHEN IT OCCURS.
FARTHER EAST, HURRICANE ERIN WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC AND REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO,
MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEMS WESTERN SIDE COULD SLIGHTLY
ELEVATE RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK, THOUGH NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY. STAY TUNED FOR ANY
UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. AS
HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES AND PASSES BY THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM
THE KEYS, BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND FRESHEN BEFORE
GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 92 82 92 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON 83 91 82 91 / 20 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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