246
FXUS62 KKEY 180835
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
435 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT IS TURNING INTO A PLEASANT MORNING HERE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR CURRENTLY IS ONLY DETECTING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE FISH
NORTH OF BIG PINE KEY. OUTSIDE OF THE FEW SHOWERS, NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. ALONG THE REEF,
WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR TODAY, THINGS ARE NOT
GOING TO CHANGE MUCH FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH, CHANCES
FOR A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY IS LESS LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE STAYING VERY
LIGHT IN SPEED. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR NORMAL TO ACCOUNT FOR
TYPICAL WET SUMMER PATTERNS BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY IS
EXPECTED.
WHILE HURRICANE ERIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY DIRECT IMPACTS
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, SYNOPTICALLY IT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS ERIN MOVES NORTHERLY FAR TO OUR EAST, WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WHICH IS NOT TYPICAL
FOR OUR CWA. THIS WON'T LAST LONG AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER FROM THE US. THEN SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES WILL LACK IN THE
REGION AND WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THEIR EASTERLY DIRECTION AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. AS HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES AND
PASSES BY THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE KEYS, BREEZES WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH AND FRESHEN BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EITHER ONSITE OR NEARBY EITHER TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW RELATED TO TIMING, DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, SO WE WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1926, THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 8.32" WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS THE SECOND
WETTEST DAY ON RECORD IN AUGUST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO JANUARY 1871.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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