976
FXUS62 KKEY 181514
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1114 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
A FAIRLY CALM AND CLEAR DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FOLLOWING A FEW SPECKS OF SHALLOW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING,
KBYX IS CURRENTLY FREE OF ANY PRECIPITABLE ECHOES IN OUR AREA,
MINUS ONE SHOWER OVER THE MARQUESAS KEYS. EVEN GOES-19 VISIBLE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
ITS NEARSHORE WATERS WITH ONLY A CLUSTER OF FAIR WEATHER CU HERE
AND THERE. SOME CLOUDS HAVE STARTED BUILDING MORE RECENTLY OVER
THE LOWER KEYS, BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT FROM THE CROWD JUST YET.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING NEAR 90 ACROSS THE KEYS AS A
RESULT. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, IS MAKING IT
FEEL LIKE A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.
WHAT IS NOT TOO NORMAL ABOUT TODAY IS THE SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. A COL REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE KEYS PROMOTING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES BETWEEN DEEP RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND HURRICANE ERIN CURRENTLY LOCATED 110 MILES NORTH OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND. OVER THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, ERIN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
NORTHWEST PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS KEEPING THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS. IT WILL, HOWEVER, STILL HAVE
SOMEWHAT OF A PULL ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. CIMSS MIMIC LAYER TPW
SHOWS THAT THE DRY SLOT IN FRONT OF ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR
AREA. THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OF 1.65
INCHES WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS NOTABLY DRY
LAYER FOUND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING WILL HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND OUR CWA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN TODAY, IF ANY, WILL BE FROM MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE THEIR
USUAL ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUILDS UP AND OUR WINDS SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DUE TO ERIN'S INFLUENCE. THUS
HAVE ELECTED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
YET STILL JUST ABOVE RECENT GUIDANCE CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE KEYS
ARE NOW IN A COL REGION BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND
HURRICANE ERIN IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS OUR WATERS. AS HURRICANE ERIN
APPROACHES AND PASSES BY THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE KEYS,
BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN BY TONIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT EITHER TAF AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
LATER TODAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1926, THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 8.32" WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS THE SECOND
WETTEST DAY ON RECORD IN AUGUST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO JANUARY 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 93 82 93 82 / 20 30 30 40
MARATHON 91 82 91 82 / 20 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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