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FXUS62 KKEY 191630
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY FALLEN APART THIS MORNING LEAVING
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ITS COASTAL WATERS LARGELY RAIN FREE. KBYX
IS STILL TRACKING ONE SMALL SHOWER IN THE DISTANT STRAITS OFF OF
THE MIDDLE KEYS, BUT GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS STRETCHED ACROSS OUR CWA
OTHERWISE. HURRICANE ERIN IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND
WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, ITS INFLUENCE
ON OUR WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED ALONG THE REEF WITH GENTLE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE ALREADY NEAR 90 WITH UNFORTUNATE DEWPOINTS UP
TO THE LOWER 80S.
MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
CIMSS MIMIC LAYER TPW NOTES THE SAME DRY SLOT IT DID YESTERDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR AREA. THIS DRY AIR CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS MORNINGS KKEY 12Z SOUNDING AND IS MOSTLY
THE BLAME FOR SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ONCE AGAIN,
WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION FROM
MAINLAND TO FOLLOW NORTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR WATERS. USUALLY THIS
SET UP CAN CAUSE A LOT OF RAIN TO SWEEP THROUGH, BUT CAMS ARE NOT
TOO THRILLED WITH THE SET UP POSSIBLY DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY DRY
AIR ALOFT. THUS CHANCE POPS ARE HELD FOR NOW. TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW, BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND TURN TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO EXCESS MOISTURE FROM ERIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HURRICANE ERIN
WILL TURN DUE NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY. THE INCREASINGLY EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION OF ERIN WILL RESULT
IN A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT, TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST BREEZES TUESDAY AND MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES
ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT SWELL FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
SEAS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL.
AS HURRICANE ERIN MIGRATES FARTHER AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, RESULTING IN A LIGHTER WIND PATTERN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF OF MAINLAND FLORIDA TOWARDS THE
ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY, UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL START LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 2022, THE DAILY RECORD WARM
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
ALSO, IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST
RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 93 83 93 82 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 91 82 91 83 / 30 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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