072
FXUS62 KKEY 200259
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1059 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
WE HAD AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTION OFF THE
MAINLAND SPILLED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO OUR WATERS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAD AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR WATERS. MULTIPLE
MARINE STATIONS ACROSS THE KEYS REGISTERED WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. MOST OF THE RAIN FELL ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS, WHERE GENERALLY
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ELSEWHERE,
IT HARDLY RAINED AS MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EITHER DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN OR STAYED OUT
OVER THE WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THINGS HAVE QUICKLY SETTLED DOWN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW,
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE OUT THERE THAT ANY
COLLISION COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE, DID NOT FEEL THE NEED TO ADJUST POPS. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
STILL DEALING WITH A NORTHEAST WIND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BUT THE
GRADIENT SHOULD TAKE BACK OVER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE
SHOULD GO BACK NORTHWEST. IF THE GRADIENT IS TOO WEAK, WE COULD GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WHICH COULD SPELL BUST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
HURRICANE ERIN WILL TURN DUE NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OVER THE COURSE TONIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY EXPANSIVE
CIRCULATION OF ERIN WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT, TO GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES TUESDAY AND
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT SWELL
FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL. AS HURRICANE ERIN MIGRATES
FARTHER AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS,
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER WIND PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST. THERE IS A THREAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP
LATE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTIONS AT
THIS TIME.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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