398
FXUS62 KKEY 201523
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1123 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
DESPITE HURRICANE ERIN SPIRALING NORTH AWAY FROM THE KEYS ALONG
THE SOUTH END OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS NOW DEVELOPING ABOVE. MEANWHILE, KBYX RADAR
DETECTS SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO PULSING
ALONG BOUNDARIES IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND JUST OUTSIDE OUR
NORTHERNMOST GULF WATERS OFF SOUTH FLORIDA'S WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN A SIMILAR PLACE TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEWPOINTS HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES BACK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S AFTER LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTIVE BURST.
MEANWHILE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ARE
STUBBORNLY PERSISTING ALONG THE REEF.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXACTLY WHAT WE EXPECTED THEY WOULD BE
AT A FEW PACKAGES AGO. DESPITE ERIN'S WIND FIELD EXPANSION,
BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS ARE STILL UNDERPERFORMING A TOUCH. THIS
COULD BE FOR ANY NUMBER OF FACTORS, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE CHALKING IT
UP TO WIND FIELD VARIABILITY RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DELAY
OVERALL AS WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FRESHEN THROUGHOUT TODAY.
DESPITE THE UNUSUAL WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO CLOCK IN AROUND NORMAL. A HANDFUL OF
BOUNDARIES ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE SHOWN MILD PROFICIENCY IN
GENERATING PULSE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND A KICK TO OUR WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO GENERATE SOME LOCAL SPEED CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
THIS MORNING'S KKEY SOUNDING STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.67 INCHES, JUST BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE. RECENT CAMS ARE THUS UNCERTAIN WITH THE AMOUNT OF
TOTAL SHOWER COVERAGE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THESE FACTORS WORKING AGAINST EACH OTHER, OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS OVERALL WITH A REEVALUATION OF CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEEDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HURRICANE
ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MAINLY NORTHERLY TRACK TODAY. THE
INCREASINGLY EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION OF ERIN WILL RESULT IN A
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY THIS
MORNING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. A SLIGHT SWELL FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
SEAS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS HURRICANE ERIN
MIGRATES FARTHER AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS, RESULTING IN A LIGHTER WIND PATTERN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. SHOWERS
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR AND AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY AND
IS MODERATELY SUPPORTED BY RECENT MODEL RUNS, BUT A HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF EITHER TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS LATER TODAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 2024, THE DAILY RECORD WARM
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F WAS LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
ALSO, IN 2022, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F WAS LAST
RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
11120.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 93 82 92 82 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 91 82 91 83 / 30 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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