022
FXUS62 KKEY 040159
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
959 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
COMPOSITE LATE EVENING TROPOSPHERIC ANALYSIS PLACES A CUTOFF LOW
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION IN SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH AN
EXPANSIVE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH DUG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF WET AND THUNDERY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED
REDUCED INSTABILITY (CAPE) AS WELL AS A BIT OF SURFACE-BASED AND
MIXED-LAYER INHIBITION, AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN
DOWNWARDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
NEAR 80F AT THIS LATE EVENING HOUR ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
OVERNIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR TRENDS, COUPLED WITH THE
LIKELY WINDOW FOR REQUIRED CHARGING OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE KEYS SEEMS TO SUGGEST MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAY
BE DRY FOR MANY COMMUNITIES. MOST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE-RESOLVING
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS, ALTHOUGH JUST
EXACTLY WHEN THE RECHARGE OCCURS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THIS
EXPECTED EVOLUTION AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RECHARGING
DOESN'T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, ELECTED TO
NUDGE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DOWNWARDS,
ALBEIT STILL IN HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY LEVELS (50-60%). NO
OTHER CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES, ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. ANY STRONGER STORM WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES,
AND CONFUSED SEAS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD SURFACE LOW ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
MAINTAIN WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ROOTED IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WHILE THE LOW MEANDERS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC, PROMOTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT
REDUCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES, ALTHOUGH REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A CONVECTIVE LULL CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AND PUSH TO EYW AND MTH
AFTER 06Z. HAVE REINTRODUCED A GENERAL PERIOD OF VCSH, FIRST AT
EYW, THEN LATER AT MTH, WITH SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO BE HANDLED BY LATER TAF AMENDMENTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 79 91 80 / 80 60 80 70
MARATHON 90 79 89 80 / 80 60 80 80
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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