162
FXUS62 KKEY 051840
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW VCSH TO BE REMOVED
FROM THE TERMINALS AND RE-INTRODUCED EARLY MORNING WHEN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REIGNITE. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
ONCE AGAIN A WET MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS, THOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LARGE SWATCH OF SHOWERS IS STARTING TO
DWINDLE DOWN, AS THE AREAS BECOME WORKED OVER. WHILE THIS PATTERN
SEEMS TO NOT BE BREAKING, THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING THIS MORNING DID
FINALLY SAMPLE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH COULD HELP KEEP THIS
SHOWERS FROM GETTING TOO STRONG. DUE TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
80S AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO OUR
ICKY WEATHER CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ALONG THE REEF AND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
A MODERATE WIND SURGE IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN WATERS
NEAR KEY LARGO. AS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY, THIS WET DAY WILL PERSIST
ON, WITH ISLAND COMMUNITIES SEEING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TIME
BEING, BUT SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY TO THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A VERY EARLY SEASON MID LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS HAS MAINTAINED A MOISTURE RICH
SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRADDLES SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SETUP AT ANY TIME OF YEAR IS USUALLY QUITE
WET. AFTER A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING, SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO HAVE BEGUN TO FILL IN. THUS FAR, A MORE BACKED STEERING FLOW
HAS MEANT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS GLIDED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN WATERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE ARCHIPELAGO.
THE VERY WET ENVIRONMENT AND TROUGHING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE AND MOSTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO AN ALREADY PRIMED SETUP. EXPECT VERY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BROADLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT LEAVING A
FRACTURED RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. ALSO, A SURFACE
THROUGH LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SWING NORTHWARD OUT OF
CUBA INTO THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAVE WEAK
TROUGHING NOT TO FAR OFF TO OUR NORTH AND THE BROAD SWATH OF
MOISTURE STAGNANT ACROSS OUR AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, CUBAN SHADOW EFFECTS MAY
PROVIDE PERIODIC BREAKS.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT. HOWEVER, THE OBNOXIOUS LOWER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT
WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY GET AN ASSIST BY AN AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF. HENCE, CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENTLE AND VERY
BROADLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. A MODERATE WIND SURGE IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WATERS NEAR KEY LARGO. THE BAND OF
HEIGHTENED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
OUR WATERS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF CUBA INTO
THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND
BACK WINDS SOUTHERLY. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BE
CHAOTIC AT TIMES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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