157
FXUS62 KKEY 060806
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
406 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STUCK IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS BEING SUSTAINED
BY A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT ROUNDING
THE SEMI PERMANENT MID LATITUDE TROUGH ROOTED OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS STRUNG ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR VICINITY ARE IN A DOWN PHASE THIS
MORNING WITH EARLIER ACTIVITY RAINING OUT FAR TO THE EAST AND NEW
ACTIVITY SPROUTING WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE BAND OF HIGH MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION,
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND AT TIMES, POORLY DEFINED. THIS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF RIDGING AT ANY LEVEL SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
EARLY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY ARE LIKELY.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TRIES TO SWING NORTHWESTWARD INTO FLORIDA
BEFORE MID WEEK. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ITS EFFORTS
WILL BE CUT SHORT BY A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE
GULF. TO COMPLICATE THINGS, THE GFS INDICATES AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL ALSO RIDE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING ITS OWN SLUG OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CONFLUENCE. THE WEAKNESS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LOITER IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS, ALONG
WITH BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE FORCING AND A RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN VARIABLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. BY MID-MORNING, DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED, THOUGH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE WITH RESPECT TO
THE TERMINALS IS UNCERTAIN. ANY PASSING SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME. AS SUCH,
OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH AFTER 14Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT MENTION OF
SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND CATEGORICAL CHANGES WILL BE LEFT TO FUTURE TAFS
AND AMENDMENTS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1951, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS
LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT KEY WEST IN SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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