898
FXUS62 KKEY 061743
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
143 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY START TO DIMISH, AS A
RESULT VCSH WILL BE REMOVED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A WET WET SATURDAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS! PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN IN THE UPPER AND LOWER KEYS SAW RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 INCHES
AN HOUR AND BOTH REQUIRED FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THESE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, A
MAJORITY OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS REMAINED DRY. ANY SHOWER THAT
DEVELOPS IS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY AREN'T VERY
FAST MOVING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY SATURATED. THIS MORNING'S
12Z KKEY SOUNDING CONFIRMS THAT WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PWAT
MEASURED. WHILE ANY OF THESE SHOWERS CAN BECOME THUNDERSTORMS, THE
MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY HIGH WIND
GUSTS. THE REST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO LOOK SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE LAST ALMOST WEEK NOW. WET AND ICKY,
THOUGH THE SUN MIGHT TRY AND PEAK THROUGH IN SPOTS OF THE CWA. NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STUCK IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS BEING SUSTAINED
BY A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT ROUNDING
THE SEMI PERMANENT MID LATITUDE TROUGH ROOTED OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS STRUNG ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR VICINITY ARE IN A DOWN PHASE THIS
MORNING WITH EARLIER ACTIVITY RAINING OUT FAR TO THE EAST AND NEW
ACTIVITY SPROUTING WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE BAND OF HIGH MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION,
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND AT TIMES, POORLY DEFINED. THIS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF RIDGING AT ANY LEVEL SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
EARLY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY ARE LIKELY.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TRIES TO SWING NORTHWESTWARD INTO FLORIDA
BEFORE MID WEEK. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ITS EFFORTS
WILL BE CUT SHORT BY A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE
GULF. TO COMPLICATE THINGS, THE GFS INDICATES AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL ALSO RIDE WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING ITS OWN SLUG OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CONFLUENCE. THE WEAKNESS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS WATERS
AS MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS IS
LIKELY. BEYOND THAT, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS,A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
ALONG WITH CONTINUED VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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