970
FXUS62 KKEY 070829
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
429 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS DUG IN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS ALONG WITH AN EARLY SEASON MID
LATITUDE TROUGH BLANKETING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A PERSISTENT BAND OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WEAK LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THE SETUP
IS NOT AS PRIMED AS IT WAS FOR MUCH OF LAST WEEK, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A FAIRLY
QUIET LATE EVENING IN THE KEYS, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN BUBBLING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND DEEP GULF ZONES.
UNFORTUNATELY, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
PROJECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL EBB AND FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE SWATH OF
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK, RELEGATING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND INHIBITION TO MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS DAY TIME
HEATING, CUBAN SHADOW, AND ISLAND CLOUD LINE BUILD UP.
HEADING INTO MID WEEK, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT A PUSH
ACROSS CUBA AND TOWARDS THE YUCATAN AS MUCH OF THE FESTERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS VACUUMED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID LATITUDE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
OBLITERATE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE'S SALIENT, AND HELP TO ESTABLISH
WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
CONSEQUENTLY, STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH, AS WILL RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A WEAK SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS RELENTLESS
HOLD OVER THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR WEAK STEERING AND A BAND OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. WHILE MINOR UNDULATIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT CHANGE.
AS A RESULT, THE CHANCE PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THIS
TROUGH WILL FINALLY WASH OUT AROUND MID WEEK AS ITS WESTERN FLANK
DISSIPATES AND THE EASTERN FLANK IS PULLED NORTHEASTWARD BY A
LIFTING OUT MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UNFORTUNATELY, LOCAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH, RIDGING ABSENT, AND STEERING FLOW WEAK.
CONSEQUENTLY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT EYW
AND MTH. THAT SAID, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS, BUT THE PULSING NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS LEAVES TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, SO VCSH IS INCLUDED AFTER 14Z. MENTION OF MORE
SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND CATEGORICAL CHANGES WILL BE HANDLED BY FUTURE
UPDATES AND AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1873, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.23" WAS RECORDED
AT KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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