321
FXUS62 KKEY 080222
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT INTO
THIS EVENING. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A CLOUD LINE THAT
WAS BUBBLING OVER THE LOWER KEYS. THE FIRST SHOWER FORMED RIGHT
OVER THE KBYX RADAR WHICH MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND
DISSIPATED. TWO MORE CELLS POPPED UP TO THE EAST AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED CELL DISSIPATED BRINGING A THUNDERSTORM TO THE
NORTH OF CUDJOE KEY WITH THE OTHER ONE AFFECTING BIG PINE KEY.
SINCE THEN, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WAX AND
WANE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND
CHAIN. MRMS DATA SHOWED RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
FOR SOME LOWER KEYS COMMUNITIES WHEN THE ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH.
GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER IN
THE AREA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SIMILAR
THEME TO PREVIOUS EVENINGS, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT, MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST VERTICAL
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 600 MB BEFORE DRYING OUT.
THERE IS A SHALLOW DRY LAYER BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 950 MB TO 850
MB WITH A WEAK INVERSION WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE GROWTH OF ANY
SHOWERS INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY ENTRAIN SOME OF THIS DRY AIR.
THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 3000 FT. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 2.16 INCHES WHICH IS
AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. OVERALL, NO CHANGES EXPECTED
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS AND THE TIME OF YEAR COULD LEAD TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT ANY
POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WELL INTO THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY WASH OUT
HEADING INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE FIELD IN AND AROUND
THE KEYS WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED. CONTINUED VERY HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ABOVE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS BUT DUE
TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE IN TERMS OF TIMING, DEVELOPMENT, AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS, VCSH WAS NOT PLACED INTO THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. IF VCSH IS WARRANTED, AN UPDATE WILL BE PROVIDED THROUGH AN
AMENDMENT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 3 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 90 79 / 40 40 50 60
MARATHON 89 79 88 79 / 50 60 40 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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