192
FXUS62 KKEY 091604
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1204 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WAXING AND WANING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
IS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS PRODUCING
RADAR ESTIMATES OF AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REEF AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER
DAY OF PULSE-LIKE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WHERE THINGS POP UP THEN
FALL APART AS IT GETS JUST TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT IN THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE AS THINGS AS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS WATERS
AS MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS IS
LIKELY. BEYOND THAT, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS. DIURNAL
INFLUENCES, THE WEAK FLOW, AND CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN VARIABLE STRETCHES. NEBULOUS FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE BROADLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL AS SHOWERS
WAX AND WANE IN THE NEARBY WATERS THEREFORE VCSH IS INCLUDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT NEAR 5 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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