713
FXUS62 KKEY 100204
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1004 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE BROAD ZONE OF MOISTURE AND CONFLUENCE FROM THE PRIOR COUPLE
OF DAYS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SOUTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO FUNNEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS,
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HELPED FUEL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING AWAY FROM ANY NEARBY
SHOWERS WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE KKEY
00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED A PWAT VALUE THAT TIED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THE DAY, 2.18". EVEN THOUGH AN INVERSION WAS OBSERVED JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THE LIFT PROVIDED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS. NEARBY SHOWERS WILL
DO LITTLE TO LOWER MID TO UPPER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
ROUNDS OF NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE UP
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEYS. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS FUNNELING
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS WILL INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THROWN OUT BY CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE PENINSULA.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS WATERS
AS MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS AND LOTS IS
LIKELY. BEYOND THAT, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS. DIURNAL
INFLUENCES, THE WEAK FLOW, AND CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN VARIABLE STRETCHES. NEBULOUS FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE BROADLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING 00Z
TAF PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WAX AND WANE ACROSS THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS, ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM BOTH
TERMINALS, THUS VCSH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5 KNOTS WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page