913
FXUS62 KKEY 111536
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1136 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SKIES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE CLEARER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
AROUND THIS TIME. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DOTTED AROUND OUR AREA OUTLINING RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM NOW DIMINISHED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. A GLANCE AT
KBYX RADAR CONFIRMS THAT ONLY A COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS BETWEEN THE
DEEP GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA REMAIN AFTER WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERALLY
HAVE FREE REIGN TO MOVE AS THEY PLEASE SINCE LIGHT WESTERLY
BREEZES, THAT ARE OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE, ARE CLOCKING IN ALONG
OUR REEF OBSERVATION STATIONS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAND ARE
UNSURPRISINGLY ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS PERSISTING
IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A TOUCH CLOSER TO A NORMAL WET SEASON
DAY THAN THE LAST FEW. LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE WINDS COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER PW OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE MEASURED IN THIS
MORNING'S KKEY SOUNDING WILL KEEP POSSIBLE CLOUD LINE FORMATION ON
THE TABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT STILL PARKED ACROSS
MAINALND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
GULF EDGES SOUTH, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL REESTABLISH
THEMSELVES ACROSS OUR WATERS PERHAPS CREATING AN EASIER PATH INTO
OUR AREA FOR SOME OF MAINLAND'S CONVECTION OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
RECENT CAM RUNS CANNOT SEEM TO AGREE ON WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS
WILL FORM AHEAD OF MAINLAND'S INFLUENCE, BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT
SOMETHING WILL BE CROSSING THE KEYS FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY.
THUS OPTED TO HOLD 50 POPS FOR TODAY AND CONTINUING WITH A 40%
INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES PEAK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTING
TOMORROW AS THE FRONT FINALLY LOOKS TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH. HOW
THAT IS GOING TO EFFECT THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS STILL IN FLUX
OF COURSE, SO STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY
MOIST AND UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR AREA. A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WHILE
WINDS FIRM UP SLIGHTLY AND CLOCK FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS STRONGER
BREEZES WILL NOT BE FAR OFF TO THE NORTH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED JUST TO OUR EAST.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY.
AN AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE COULD FORM NEAR EITHER TERMINAL TODAY ABLE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS AND
MVFR OR EVEN IFR VIS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, INFLUENCE FROM
MAINLAND CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY AS WELL. SINCE EXACT TIMING IS UP IN THE AIR,
VCSH PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR NOW WITH AMENDMENTS
PLANNED TO ADDRESS IMPACTS AS NEEDED. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
START LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1900, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80F
AND THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 71F WERE RECORDED AT KEY
WEST. IN ADDITION, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.87" WAS RECORDED
AT KEY WEST IN THE SAME YEAR. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 80 90 78 / 40 40 60 70
MARATHON 89 79 89 78 / 40 40 60 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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