758
FXUS62 KKEY 120812
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
412 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A COMPLICATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES HAS BECOME UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO,
REACHING SOUTHWARDS TO THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HAS AIDED IN NUDGING
SOUTHWARD A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN HARASSING THE GULF AND
FLORIDA FOR SEEMINGLY WEEKS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALONG WITH COPIOUS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES THE LONG
STRETCH OF MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. THE MAIN NEGATIVE
IS A WEAK KINEMATIC FIELD DUE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES NEAR
THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH OF A SPARK TO GET THINGS
GOING. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE TROUGH BEING POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH AND HOPEFULLY SOME DRIER
AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT BUT TEND NORTHEASTERLY DUE TO SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS CUBA
AND BAHAMAS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY REMAINS QUITE LOW FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL REGARDING THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHS/LOWS ALONG THIS TROUGH. A LOT OF THIS
WILL HINGE ON HOW THE AMPLIFIED, BUT QUITE COMPLICATED, TROUGH
ALOFT BEHAVES. GIVE THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH, WILL MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE A
SHOT AT FIRMING UP MODESTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY REACH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A WEAK TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY EASE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED AT TIMES DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SETUP. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE
PERTURBATIONS. WITH THAT SAID, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TEND
NORTHWESTERLY, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE REMAINS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
HIGH FINALLY REACHES INTO THE KEYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS AS FAR AS TIMING FOR INITIATION
WARRANTS ONLY AN INCLUSION OF A PERIOD OF GENERAL VCSH FOR NOW. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDRESSED VIA AMENDMENTS, POTENTIALLY
FREQUENT, AS NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD. STORMS SHOULD THEN AGAIN
WANE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN OCCURS.
CLIMATE
IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 9.37" WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS HIGH DAILY RAINFALL VALUE WAS ATTRIBUTED
TO TROPICAL STORM SALLY PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS EARLIER
IN THE DAY, AND THEN CUBAN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW SURGING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT EVENING. DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS, A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LOWER KEYS PRODUCED 3.98" OF RAINFALL
AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN ONE HOUR. THIS LED TO NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOODED STREETS AND STALLED CARS IN KEY WEST, WITH
FLOODING LASTING SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER
RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, TOPPLING 1919'S RECORD OF
7.47" ON SEPTEMBER 10TH, BY ALMOST 2 WHOLE INCHES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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