254
FXUS62 KKEY 140231
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
COMPARED TO LAST EVENING, TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER. KBYX
RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
STRAITS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT WHICH QUICKLY DISSIPATED BEFORE
SUNSET. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF INTEREST WERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE STRADDLING ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WHICH EVENTUALLY DID MOVE SOUTH INTO FLORIDA BAY AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER KEYS, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH JUST
SOME CUMULUS. GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN SLOWLY INTO THE KEYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
A GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1.4 INCHES NORTH OF THE CHAIN TO
1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE STRAITS. SINCE THE GREATER MOISTURE IS
ACROSS THE STRAITS, THIS IS WHERE WE ARE SEEING A COUPLE SHOWERS
WHICH RECENTLY DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THIS ACTUALLY MIGHT FEEL QUITE REFRESHING COMPARED TO THE 78
TO 80 DEGREE DEW POINTS WE HAVE HAD FOR MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH.
MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY PROFILE COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THERE IS SOME MOISTURE PRESENT
IS BETWEEN 850 MB TO 650 MB. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED IS MUCH DRIER
COMPARED TO PAST NIGHTS MEASURING AT 1.71 INCHES. THIS IS JUST
ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. ALSO, THE WIND PROFILE IS
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT AGL WHICH IS HELPING TO
USHER IN THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF. DUE TO
THIS, POPS WERE LOWERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT TO 30% FROM 50% TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS DRIER AIR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS OF
THIS FEATURE, INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS IMMEDIATE
NORTH, WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AS THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO THE KEYS
MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PACKAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TERMINALS REMAINING
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TIME FOR A SHOWER
BEING AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT, THEREFORE, VCSH IS NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2 TO 8 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 78 89 79 / 60 50 40 40
MARATHON 87 78 88 79 / 60 50 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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