122
FXUS62 KKEY 140942
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
542 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
COMPOSITE TROPOSPHERIC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE, WITH A PHASED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY
TO THE WEST. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING COMPARED TO TWENTY-FOUR HOURS AGO. EARLIER OVERNIGHT
BOUNDARY- DRIVEN SHOWERS AND BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WANED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH KBYX CURRENTLY ONLY DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE KEYS MARINE ZONES. NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN, AND AVAILABLE LAND-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
SAMPLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, SUGGESTS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL FINALLY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS FLIRTED WITH
THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE REPRIEVE
FROM THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE FRONT
NUDGES BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THE FRONT THEN APPEARS TO STALL YET
AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONTAL
FEATURE, EASTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN AS WELL, SUPPORTING
ELEVATED SPEED CONVERGENCE AND CORRELATED ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE BRIEF BOUTS OF RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS OF
THIS FEATURE, INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS IMMEDIATE
NORTH, WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO THE
KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS, BUT RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SHORT LIVED AND
MISREPRESENTATIVE MVFR OBSERVATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. DRIER
AIR RECENTLY USHERED IN WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LOW, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP VCSH OUT OF THE PACKAGE UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CLIMATE
IN 1875, A HURRICANE MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST FROM HAVANA, PASSING
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE KEYS. KEY WEST RECORDED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 29.57".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 90 80 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 88 79 89 80 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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