690
FXUS62 KKEY 141508
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING AS DRY AIR HAS FINALLY SETTLED ALOFT AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
WET CONDITIONS. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOTES SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS STRUNG ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WHILE OUR LAND AREAS HAVE BEEN FREE OF
PRECIPITATION, KBYX RADAR HAS DETECTED SOME SHOWERS PERCOLATING
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MORE RECENTLY THE DEEP GULF WATERS.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BRIEFLY GREW TO THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH
BUT ARE SHORT-LIVED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE
REEF HELP EXPLAIN THE NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES FORM. MEANWHILE, CURRENT TEMPERATURES ON THE ISLAND
CHAIN AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL STUCK IN THE MID
70S.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET TO KICK OFF
THE WEEK. THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING CLOSELY RESEMBLES
YESTERDAY EVENING'S SOUNDING WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING THROUGHOUT
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THE OBSERVED PW HAS NOW DROPPED TO
1.57 INCHES, OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY. CIMMS MIMIC
TPW CONFIRMS THIS CHANGE WITH DRIER VALUES STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
OBSERVED AT MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONFIRMING A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AXIS LIES PERHAPS JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT, A LACK OF FLOW, AND POOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
TO BE APPROPRIATE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA
WILL CRAWL BACK TO THE NORTH STARTING SOMETIME TOMORROW RESULTING
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS COMING WEEK,
SO ENJOY THE DRY SPELL WHILE IT LASTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS OF
THIS FEATURE, INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS IMMEDIATE
NORTH, WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO THE
KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. DRY AIR
SHOULD MOSTLY SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION NEAR ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CLIMATE
IN 1875, A HURRICANE MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST FROM HAVANA, PASSING
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE KEYS. KEY WEST RECORDED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 29.57".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 90 80 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 88 79 89 80 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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