067
FXUS62 KKEY 150232
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KBYX RADAR HAS DETECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AND OFF MOST OF THE
EVENING SHIFT. AT FIRST, A CLOUD LINE OVER THE LOWER KEYS
GENERATED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WHICH
WANED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAINLAND
TRIED TO HIT THE OCEAN REEF AREA BUT THESE STORMS REMAINED JUST
NORTH AND MOVED EAST INTO THE WATERS TO OUR NORTHEAST. LATEST
RADAR DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PERCOLATING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS, THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS, AND THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE
WATERS. IN ADDITION, A THUNDERSTORM IS STRADDLING THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND FLORIDA BAY AREA NEAR MOSQUITO POINT. GOES EAST
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE KEYS REMAIN IN VERY WEAK FLOW
WITH THE CLOSEST SYNOPTIC FEATURE BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT, MARINE
PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING VARIABLE BREEZES OF 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING REMAINS QUITE DRY AGAIN THIS EVENING,
THOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT MOISTENING BETWEEN 925 MB AND
900 MB. MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT BEING MEASURED AT
1.78 INCHES. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. THE WIND
PROFILE IS ONE THAT WOULDNT'T QUITE SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ABOUT 1000 FT AGL TO NORTHWESTERLY APPROXIMATELY 3000 FT
AGL. ALSO, GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) CONTINUES TO
SHOW A GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS WITH ~1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF TO ~1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR DISTANT STRAITS. SINCE
WE STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, LACKING A TRIGGER EXCEPT FOR SOME
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES, NO CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS OF
THIS FEATURE, INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS IMMEDIATE
NORTH, WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AS THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO THE
KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS ANYWHERE FROM OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
RESULTING IN VCSH BEING HELD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 2 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 90 80 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 88 79 89 80 / 20 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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