209
FXUS62 KKEY 151542
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1142 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
OUR REPRIEVE FROM WET WEATHER WAS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THEN MOVED TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT EJECTED SPARKED MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
MIDDLE KEYS AND EXTENDED DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA. SAID ACTIVITY IS NOW FINALLY DIMINISHING, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. WINDS
ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE WITH A MIX OF
EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES OBSERVED ALONG THE REEF.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A MIXED BAG WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS,
WHERE RAIN FELL AND CLOUDS PERSIST, REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 WHILE THE CURRENTLY DRY AND CLEAR LOWER KEYS
REPORTS NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 80S.
THE KEYS FINDS ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOMS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA ALLOWING MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH BACK INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. CIMSS MIMIC TPW NOTES THIS FEATURE WITH PW VALUES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES INTRUDING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE, THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING HELD FAST TO THE LARGE
DRY POCKET OF AIR ABOVE 600 MB WITH A PW CLOCKING IN AT 1.84
INCHES (JUST BELOW THE DAILY MEAN). EVEN DRIER AIR IS OBSERVED TO
THE NORTH ALIGNING OUR LAND AREAS RIGHT ALONG A STEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. AN OVERALL LIGHT WINDFIELD ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NOW
OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. BREEZES WILL
START TO FRESHEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS
TRUDGES NORTH ALLOWING THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO NOSE BACK IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS OF
THIS FEATURE WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS
IMMEDIATE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS
AND RAIN CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AS THE
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO
THE KEYS MARINE ZONES. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, OVER THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WILL SEE FRESHENING BREEZES AND
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED FROM THIS MORNING
LEAVING NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SINCE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNLESS NEEDED. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING EASTERLY.
CLIMATE
IN 1907, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.92" WAS RECORDED IN KEY
WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 80 90 78 / 40 30 40 50
MARATHON 89 80 89 78 / 30 30 40 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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