675
FXUS62 KKEY 151826
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN ONGOING CLOUD LINE OFF THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS MAY SPARK SOME CONVECTION
NEAR EITHER TERMINAL, BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE USED TO EXPRESS
SPECIFIC IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
OUR REPRIEVE FROM WET WEATHER WAS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THEN MOVED TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT EJECTED SPARKED MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
MIDDLE KEYS AND EXTENDED DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA. SAID ACTIVITY IS NOW FINALLY DIMINISHING, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. WINDS
ARE STILL RECOVERING FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE WITH A MIX OF
EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES OBSERVED ALONG THE REEF.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A MIXED BAG WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS,
WHERE RAIN FELL AND CLOUDS PERSIST, REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 WHILE THE CURRENTLY DRY AND CLEAR LOWER KEYS
REPORTS NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 80S.
THE KEYS FINDS ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOMS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA ALLOWING MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH BACK INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. CIMSS MIMIC TPW NOTES THIS FEATURE WITH PW VALUES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES INTRUDING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE, THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING HELD FAST TO THE LARGE
DRY POCKET OF AIR ABOVE 600 MB WITH A PW CLOCKING IN AT 1.84
INCHES (JUST BELOW THE DAILY MEAN). EVEN DRIER AIR IS OBSERVED TO
THE NORTH ALIGNING OUR LAND AREAS RIGHT ALONG A STEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. AN OVERALL LIGHT WINDFIELD ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NOW
OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. BREEZES WILL
START TO FRESHEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS
TRUDGES NORTH ALLOWING THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO NOSE BACK IN.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
GOES-19 SATELLITE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A DEEP TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE STILL SITUATED AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH, THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RETROGRADE AND
MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
BUILDING HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED BREEZES AS WELL AS A PUSH OF MOISTURE BY THE
MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY SLATED TO PEAK SOMETIME EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL JUST BE A MESSY, WET PERIOD FOR THE KEYS.
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EITHER OVER THE WEEKEND, OR AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW.
ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE SHOULD ALL APPRECIATE WHATEVER
FLORIDA SUNSHINE WE CAN GET TODAY, BECAUSE SOGGY WEATHER IS
RETURNING AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS
OF THIS FEATURE WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS
IMMEDIATE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS
AND RAIN CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AS THE
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO
THE KEYS MARINE ZONES. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, OVER THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WILL SEE FRESHENING BREEZES AND
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 90 78 89 / 30 40 50 70
MARATHON 80 89 78 87 / 30 40 50 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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