569
FXUS62 KKEY 160233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY A QUIET EVENING SHIFT. HOWEVER, THERE WAS A
TIME EARLIER WHERE THINGS GOT A LITTLE BIT BUSY. KBYX RADAR
DETECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN AROUND 5 PM. THIS ACTIVITY FORMED ALONG A CLOUD LINE
THAT WAS BUBBLING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD LINE DID PRODUCE A
SKINNY WATERSPOUT WITH A SPRAY RING VISIBLE ON THE SURFACE TO THE
NORTH OF BOCA CHICA NEAR SNIPE POINT. WE RECEIVED A FEW PHONE
CALLS TO THE OFFICE TO NOTIFY US OF THE WATERSPOUT AND THEN A FEW
PICTURES AND VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA CONFIRMED THIS. THIS AT FIRST
PROMPTED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT, HOWEVER, WHEN WE RECEIVED
WORD IT WAS PERSISTING, OPTED TO GO WITH A SHORT FUSED SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING. THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANED AS WE CONTINUED TO
APPROACH SUNSET AND THE SUN ANGLE GOT LOWER IN THE SKY. OTHERWISE,
THE ONLY AREA OF NOTE WAS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT AN HOUR AGO WHICH HAS
ALSO SINCE DISSIPATED. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW LOW LEVEL CUMULUS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE KEYS REMAIN
IN VERY WEAK FLOW WITH THE CLOSEST SYNOPTIC FEATURE BEING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT,
MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING VARIABLE BREEZES OF
NEAR 5 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY PROFILE YET AGAIN
TONIGHT, THOUGH, THE PWAT VALUE HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD
EACH NOW. IT HAS BEEN MEASURED TO BE 1.9 INCHES THIS EVENING WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN FOR THE DATE. THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 950 MB TO 925 MB WHICH MAY HAVE HELPED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CLOUD LINE EARLIER. THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS CHAOTIC FROM
AROUND 1000 FT AGL TO 3000 FT AGL. BASED ON THE ABOVE, BESIDES FOR
SOME MESOSCALE PROCESSES, THERE IS NO TRIGGER NEARBY, THOUGH,
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL. SINCE WE ARE MISSING THE
ONE INGREDIENT, WE DID DROP POPS FOR TONIGHT TO 20% FROM 30%. ONCE
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES WILL
STEADILY INCREASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UNDULATIONS OF
THIS FEATURE WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS
IMMEDIATE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WINDS
AND RAIN CHANCES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AS THE
AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY IS ABLE TO SPREAD DOWN CLOSER TO
THE KEYS MARINE ZONES. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, OVER THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WILL SEE FRESHENING BREEZES AND
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY OVERNIGHT WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BEING SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY BEING UNCERTAIN, VCSH HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VARIABLE
BETWEEN 2 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST 4 TO 9
KNOTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 80 90 78 / 40 20 40 50
MARATHON 89 80 89 78 / 30 20 40 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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