466
FXUS62 KKEY 160936
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
536 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN BENIGN DURING THIS OVERNIGHT
SHIFT. SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ON THE
00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM LAST NIGHT, AND THAT SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH TO
NURTURE A LITTLE BIT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A FEW
HOURS AGO. THOUGH OUR KBYX RADAR IS NOT CURRENTLY DETECTING ANY
ACTIVITY WITHIN OUR CWA, IT IS PICKING UP ON THE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF OF THE NORTH SHORE OF WESTERN
CUBA. WHILE IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL TRIGGER ANY EXCITEMENT
NEARBY THIS MORNING, IT DOES TELL US THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IN THAT
DIRECTION IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. FOR NOW, WE ARE
ADVERTISING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER, THE FUTURE SOUNDING WHEN WE LAUNCH THE MORNING
BALLOON IN A FEW HOURS WILL BE TELLING, AND MAY WARRANT A FORECAST
UPDATE WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES.
WE HAVE DONE A LOT OF TALKING (TYPING) ABOUT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY IN
THE GENERAL AREA, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NUDGE ITS WAY BACK
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THAT HAPPENS, ENHANCED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE WETTEST
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ANYWHERE FROM A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME RELIEF MAY COME CLOSER TO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE WON'T BE ABLE TO PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE UNTIL
OUR WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONVEY THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, WE ARE
ENTERING YET ANOTHER WET AND SOGGY STRETCH, BUT THE FLORIDA
SUNSHINE HAS TO RETURN EVENTUALLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A VERY
STUBBORN, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS WILL DRAG CLOSER TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE RESULTING INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED SOME TIME OVER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRESHENING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BREEZES SHOULD SLACKEN AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT TO SOME DEGREE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
TERMINAL BUT FOR THE TIME BEING NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER SUNRISE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1935, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.04" WAS RECORDED
IN KEY WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 79 89 77 / 30 60 70 80
MARATHON 89 79 88 78 / 30 60 70 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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