498
FXUS62 KKEY 231512
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1112 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
-WINDS WILL FRESHEN SHARPLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SEAS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET AND SERENE MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. DRY
AIR SPILLING OFF THE MAINLAND IS KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY. MEANWHILE,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND, WHICH HAS LED TO A RASH OF STRATO-CU DEVELOPING
OVER THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE, NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ON KBYX
BUT UPSTREAM WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS COLLOCATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. WINDS ARE A LITTLE
LIGHTER THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AND CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISLAND CHAIN IS
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH STARTING TO
APPEAR.
AS THE MAINLAND HEATS UP, IT WILL ACT TO HINDER AN INCREASE IN
WINDS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THEREFORE, HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHADOW EFFECT. HOWEVER, ITS
EFFECT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT AND JUST AFTER SUNSET AS
NORTHERLY WINDS SURGE. EXPECTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL FRESHEN TO
MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. OCCAISIONAL STRONG BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME AND THEN OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES WILL
INITIALLY BE STRONGER ACROSS THE KEY WEST TERMINAL. MTH TERMINAL
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AS THE MAINLAND HEATS UP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND CREATES A SHADOW EFFECT. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page