935
FXUS62 KKEY 231909
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
309 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
-WINDS WILL FRESHEN SHARPLY THIS EVENING, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AND ROUGH SEAS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL FURTHER FRESHEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. BREEZES WILL PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED. BREEZES SLACKEN BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FRESHENING
ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ISLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, EXPECTING BREEZES TO FRESHEN FURTHER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET AND SERENE MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. DRY
AIR SPILLING OFF THE MAINLAND IS KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY. MEANWHILE,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND, WHICH HAS LED TO A RASH OF STRATO-CU DEVELOPING
OVER THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE, NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ON KBYX
BUT UPSTREAM WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS COLLOCATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. WINDS ARE A LITTLE
LIGHTER THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AND CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISLAND CHAIN IS
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH STARTING TO
APPEAR.
AS THE MAINLAND HEATS UP, IT WILL ACT TO HINDER AN INCREASE IN
WINDS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THEREFORE, HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHADOW EFFECT. HOWEVER, ITS
EFFECT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT AND JUST AFTER SUNSET AS
NORTHERLY WINDS SURGE. EXPECTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 86 77 86 / 10 20 30 30
MARATHON 77 85 78 85 / 10 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE..
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page