311
FXUS62 KKEY 240232
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
-WINDS WILL FRESHEN SHARPLY THIS EVENING, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AND ROUGH SEAS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE SINCE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
INITIALLY, THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS.
HOWEVER, THIS HAS NOW EXTENDED TO A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS AND THE WESTERN STRAITS. ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS MAINLY FORMED ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS. THE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE STRAITS WHERE THE ACTIVITY REMAINS
THE MOST WIDESPREAD. GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)
SHOWS QUITE THE CONTRAST IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE KEYS. PWAT
RANGES FROM AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE KEYS WHEREAS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ACROSS THE
STRAITS THE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RIDING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WITH TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HAS
CREATED A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS OBSERVING NORTHEAST BREEZES NEAR
20 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED
WAS 1.06 INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
DATE. INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW TO NONE. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS A
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
MAINLY NORTHEASTERLIES. OUTSIDE OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES, OTHER
MESOSCALE PROCESSES, AND SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE, A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS REMAINS OVERNIGHT FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THERE IS HIGHER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ABOVE IN THE DISCUSSION ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA WHICH IS LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FROM SYNOPSIS,
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA CHURNING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY BREEZES BEGINNING TONIGHT. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE STAGNANT PATTERN. BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN BRIEFLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY FRESHEN ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 86 76 86 77 / 10 10 20 30
MARATHON 85 77 85 78 / 10 10 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page