073
FXUS62 KKEY 011852
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
252 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
-SUNSHINE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL APPERANCE DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
-NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
BKN TO OVC SKIES REIMAIN IN PLACE NEAR FL070 WITH A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AT EITHER
TERMINAL. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THIS MORNING LOOKS A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS AS
AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL, BUT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE ISLAND CHAIN. LIGHTNING HAS NOT
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND THE CHANCE OF ANY
OCCURRING IS NEAR ZERO. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, BUT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. SHOWERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE RISK OF LIGHTNING. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
FEATURE NOTED ON THE KKEY SOUNDING IS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF
SATURATION BETWEEN 770MB AND 700MB. THIS IS WHERE THE RADIOSONDE
LIKELY WENT THROUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE SUN MAY BE ABLE TO "BURN" SOME OF
OUR CLOUD COVER OFF BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CLEAR SKIES SIMPLY
AREN'T IN OUR CARDS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 75F, BUT
ANYONE EXPERIENCING THIS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WON'T WARM UP MUCH
UNTIL THE SUN CAN GET THROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE AIR MOVING, AND DARE WE SAY THAT SOME OF OUR
WARM WEATHER LOVERS IN THE OFFICE HAVE ALREADY EXPRESSED HOW
"CHILLY" THE AIR IS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT NEED ANY UPDATES OR CHANGES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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