219
FXUS62 KKEY 020303
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
-SUNSHINE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL APPEARANCE DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
-NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A QUIET BUT CLOUDY FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER IS COMING TO A CLOSE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. OVERCAST SKIES THAT HAD SETTLED OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY ARE JUST NOW SLOWLY THINNING OUT
OVER OUR AREA WITH THE MAJORITY OF COVERAGE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. KBYX DETECTS A CLUSTER OF SHALLOW SHOWERS THAT CONTINUES
TO WAX AND WANE JUST WEST OF ELBOW CAY. OFFSHORE OBSERVATION
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF RECORD GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES. DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP OUR NORTHEAST
BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, MOIST TROPICAL AIR WILL
RETREAT BACK TOWARDS OUR AREA RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THAT IS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SWEEPS TOWARDS OUR AREA. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY FRESHEN
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE GULF ON ITS
WAY TOWARDS FLORIDA. GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON HOW
STRONG A FRONTAL PASSAGE (IF ANY) WOULD BE THROUGH THE KEYS SO
STAY TUNED TO SEE IF WE GET A REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER AND
RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST,
AND WILL LIKELY FRESHEN WINDS AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT SURGES ACROSS
THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BREEZES WILL SLACKEN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. SCT TO BKN SKIES NEAR FL070 WILL THIN GRADUALLY. VCSH
IS NOT MENTIONED IN EITHER TAF DUE TO ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 83 73 82 / 10 20 30 10
MARATHON 72 82 73 82 / 10 20 30 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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