046
FXUS62 KKEY 020919
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
419 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
-SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL
APPEARANCE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
-NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS, HAS BEGUN SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. IN ADDITION, KBYX RADAR SHOWS THE ACTIVITY HAS REALLY
FLARED UP IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS, WE STILL HAVE NOT
OBSERVED LIGHTNING IN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE, A BROAD AND
MESSY SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
UPSTREAM IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE MOVING
ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS MORNING. LET'S TALK ABOUT EACH PIECE
SEPARATELY FOR A MOMENT. WE'LL START WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOT OF DYNAMICS WITH IT AS EVIDENT BY
THE ROBUST CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF, BEFORE LOSING STEAM AND
BECOMING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF LATER
THIS EVENING.
NOW, ON TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS DEVELOPING A
SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH ITS OWN ATTENDENT FRONT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL NOT MAKE AS
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO CATCH UP TO IT LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST US, IT WILL BRIEFLY PHASE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. THIS PHASING WILL BE ENOUGH THAT THE ORPHANED
QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MERGE WITH THE OTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO BECOME A SINGULAR FRONT.
THIS NEWLY MERGED FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN ACCELERATING SOUTHEAST AS
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT
TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME ON MONDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SLACKEN.
THEREAFTER, THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PEAKS AND LULLS IN
THE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A MIX OF NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PARADE OF FEATURES MOVE THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST, AND WILL LIKELY
FRESHEN WINDS AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN AND BREEZES WILL SLACKEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE MTH TERMINAL. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS TIMING, VCSH WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. THERE REMAINS THE LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER OR TWO
TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST BETWEEN 4 TO 11 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 75 81 71 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON 81 74 80 70 / 20 30 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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