190
FXUS62 KKEY 022009
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
309 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
-SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL
APPEARANCE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
-NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT OCCASIONAL
INSTANCES OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MTH UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 01Z DUE TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE AREA. BEYOND 01Z,
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD RETREAT FARTHER AWAY, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR SOME FLORIDA SUNSHINE, WE ARE SORRY TO
REPORT THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF STOCK. GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD, PATCHY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS AT
BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS ARE REPORTING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER. THIS LINES UP WITH OUR 12Z KKEY
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING WHERE THE AIR CLOSEST TO SATURATION WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 7000 AND 9000 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE A LOT OF DRY AIR ON THE
SOUNDING, OUR KBYX RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A LINE OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN AS WELL AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. RADAR DERIVED ECHO
TOPS SHOW THE TALLEST SHOWERS REACHING BETWEEN 15,000 AND 20,000
FEET, WHICH IS SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE
10,000 FEET. CIMSS MIMIC LAYER PWAT DOES SHOW AN AREA OF HIGHER
VALUES, APPROXIMATELY 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT, IN THE AREA WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RADIOSONDE LAUNCHED
THIS MORNING TOOK A DRIER TRACK, AND DID NOT CAPTURE THE
RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DIMINISHING WE
ARE SEEING ON RADAR, THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
SEEM REASONABLE. A FEW ISLAND COMMUNITIES MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY (LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF FLOODING RAIN).
OUTSIDE OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMING UP MUCH MORE THAN THIS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, SO NO
CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST, AND WILL LIKELY FRESHEN WINDS AS AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BREEZES WILL SLACKEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 81 71 80 / 30 10 10 0
MARATHON 74 80 70 79 / 30 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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