418
FXUS62 KKEY 030348
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.
-NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
-RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH BREEZES
SLACKENING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
AFTER A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONDITIONS AROUND
THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE MOSTLY SETTLED DOWN. KBYX RADAR DETECTED
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE MIDDLE KEYS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THAT QUICKLY SPARKED INTO A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE STRAITS DUE TO WARMER
WATERS VIA THE GULF STREAM ALLOWED FOR A FEW PARTICULARLY TALL
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SOME MESOCYCLONE. THIS LINE EVENTUALLY
SWEPT THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAITS WITH A HANDFUL OF SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS FOLLOWING A FEW OVERACHIEVING CELLS. THIS COMES AS A
REMINDER THAT WE ARE NOT FULLY IN FALL CONDITIONS JUST YET.
MEANWHILE, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REEF. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE MID IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS UNFORTUNATELY
RECOVERING TO NEAR 70.
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED SOME TIME TO RECOVER FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVE
EVENING, WITH RECENT CAM RUNS REPORTING A MOSTLY QUIET REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR THE KEYS. DRY AIR STILL RESIDES ALOFT IN OUR KKEY 00Z
SOUNDING WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT. OUR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PROMOTED BY A SURFACE HIGH SLOTTED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS HIGH WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GULF BRINGING ALONG AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
TOWARDS FLORIDA MOVING INTO TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
GRADUAL FRESHENING OF BREEZES PEAKING TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A DRY EVENT, A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE
FROM INCREASING WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST, AND WILL LIKELY FRESHEN WINDS AS AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. THE
ISLAND CHAIN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY TONIGHT FOLLOWING
SEVERAL HOURS OF ACTIVE WEATHER NEARBY, WITH NO MENTION OF VCSH
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 6 TO 11 KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR
15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 81 71 80 / 30 10 10 0
MARATHON 74 80 70 79 / 30 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page