325
FXUS62 KKEY 030924
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL START TO FRESHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
-BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
-BUILDING HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK WILL RESULT IN SLACKENING
BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX
RADAR SHOWS ANY REMAINING RAIN THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THERE WERE ALSO
SOME SHOWERS BEING DETECTED TO THE WEST OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OUT OF THE KEYS COVERAGE
AREA. THIS HAS LED TO A COMFORTABLE NIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES.
THE KEYS REMAIN IN A COL REGION FOR NOW WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAINING EITHER EAST OF THE AREA OR NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN MARINE PLATFORMS OBSERVING MAINLY
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES.
FORECAST
THE MAIN STORY GOING FORWARD WILL BE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. THE FRONT IS DRAPED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. WE EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FRESHENING BREEZES INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. THEREFORE,
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES SO THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD FARTHER OUT TO SEA MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS INITIALLY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLACKENING BREEZES THEREAFTER. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PRESSES
THROUGH BEFORE THE DEEPER DRY AIR MOVES IN.
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL SEE MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN, RESULTING
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
INITIALLY BE POOLING NORTH OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER, AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WE EXPECT THIS
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE BLEEDING NORTHWARD AS WELL AS BECOMING DEEPER
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF RAIN FOR LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) FOR INCREASING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON IS HEADLINED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE LOWER KEYS, THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, AND THE WESTERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT IS HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, ALL
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALL OF HAWK CHANNEL, AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IS HEADLINED FOR THE NEARSHORE AND BAY
WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES. THEREAFTER, BREEZES SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY STAY
OFFSHORE ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
IN 1876, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 74 79 74 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 83 74 79 73 / 10 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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