452
FXUS62 KKEY 032041
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
341 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST KEYS
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT WEAKER ON GULF
AND BAY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WHERE ONLY
CAUTIONS WILL BE ADVERTISED.
-BREEZES WILL SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PUSHES OUT ONTO THE ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE
SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE LIMITED, THEY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
FRESHENING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CROSSWINDS AT THE TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
KBYX RADAR SHOWS ANY REMAINING RAIN THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
STRAITS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THERE WERE
ALSO SOME SHOWERS BEING DETECTED TO THE WEST OF THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OUT OF THE
KEYS COVERAGE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO A COMFORTABLE NIGHT ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE KEYS REMAIN IN A COL REGION FOR NOW WITH ALL
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAINING EITHER EAST OF THE AREA OR
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN MARINE PLATFORMS
OBSERVING MAINLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES.
FORECAST
THE MAIN STORY GOING FORWARD WILL BE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. THE FRONT IS DRAPED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. WE EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FRESHENING BREEZES INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. THEREFORE,
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES SO THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD FARTHER OUT TO SEA MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS INITIALLY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLACKENING BREEZES THEREAFTER. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PRESSES
THROUGH BEFORE THE DEEPER DRY AIR MOVES IN.
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL SEE MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN, RESULTING
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
INITIALLY BE POOLING NORTH OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER, AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WE EXPECT THIS
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE BLEEDING NORTHWARD AS WELL AS BECOMING DEEPER
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF RAIN FOR LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 423 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) FOR INCREASING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON IS HEADLINED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE LOWER KEYS, THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, AND THE WESTERN STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT IS HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, ALL
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALL OF HAWK CHANNEL, AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IS HEADLINED FOR THE NEARSHORE AND BAY
WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES. THEREAFTER, BREEZES SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ033>035-042-043-052-053-072-073.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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