657
FXUS62 KKEY 040348
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
DRIVE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT WEAKER ON GULF AND
BAY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WHERE ONLY
CAUTIONS WILL BE ADVERTISED.
-BREEZES WILL SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PUSHES OUT ONTO THE ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
BREEZES ARE FRESHENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA IS REINFORCING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH OFFSHORE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ALONG THE
REEF CURRENTLY REPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THIS IS NOT
YET THE PEAK OF IT HOWEVER AS HIGH MAGNITUDES ARE OBSERVED ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND FLORIDA. KBYX RADAR DETECTS A HANDFUL OF
SHALLOW SHOWERS PERCOLATING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO
INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM INCREASING WINDS. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO STILL
UP NEAR 70 DEGREES TONIGHT AND ARE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH IT. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THIS IS NOT
QUITE A "BRING IT" FRONT. IT IS MORE SO PROGGED TO DESCEND DOWN
INTO THE STRAITS AND STALL OUT, NOT QUITE DRYING OUT THE SURFACE
LEVELS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 RANGE WHILE THE AIR COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY SLACKENING
OUR BREEZES ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL, THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, THE DEEP GULF WATERS, AND WESTERN GULF SIDE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN ALL
OTHER COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH KEYS WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THEREAFTER,
BREEZES SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
WEAKENS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. WHILE A
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE KEYS WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT
RELATIVELY DRY, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS CROSSING THE ISLAND CHAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY, INCREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 74 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 74 79 73 80 / 10 10 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ033>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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