665
FXUS62 KKEY 040930
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST KEYS WATERS TODAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT WEAKER ON GULF AND BAY WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WHERE ONLY CAUTIONS REMAIN
ADVERTISED.
-BREEZES WILL SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PUSHES OUT ONTO THE ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS THE KEYS
IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY ZONE. THERE IS HIGHER MOISTURE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS AND OUT TO THE BAHAMAS. PWAT
VALUES HERE ARE BEING ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES.
CLOSER TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AND TO THE NORTH, THE PWAT VALUES ARE
LOWER BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS MAKING FOR A DECENT
GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. KBYX RADAR
HAS BEEN DETECTING SHOWERS ALL NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FASHION. IN THE PAST HOUR, LIGHTNING WAS
OBSERVED RIGHT AT THE BORDER OF THE KEYS FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE SOUTH OF WOODS WALL EAST
CRACK. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LAST EVENING, BREEZY
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON GUSTING BETWEEN 19 TO 23 MPH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION, MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES.
FORECAST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE TO THE EAST THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH THE MARINE AREA HOLDING ONTO THE
STRONGER BREEZES UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR LATE
WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES,
ALBEIT, WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. BREEZES WILL PEAK AT NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING AND THEN MOST LIKELY LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND, EXPECT
FURTHER SLACKENING BREEZES TO LIGHT TO GENTLE. MOISTURE IS
LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS ON SOUTH FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TILL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN CREEPING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME A LITTLE BIT DEEPER LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES TICKING UP SLIGHTLY MORE (~20%).
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUTSIDE OF
TIMING FOR A POTENTIALLY POTENT COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT
WE KNOW RIGHT NOW IS EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS LEADING TO
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BREEZIER PERIOD, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
SIGNIFICANT DIP IN DEW POINTS (HUMIDITY). STAY TUNED AS THIS COULD
BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THE EXCEPTION BEING FLORIDA BAY AND
THE BAYSIDE/GULFSIDE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) REMAINS HEADLINED FOR
FLORIDA BAY AND THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, BREEZES
SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN SLACKEN TOWARDS SUNSET. A MID TO HIGH DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY BUT WILL NOT CREATE
ANY IMPACTS
CLIMATE
IN 1966, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 57F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
THIS DAY IN HISTORY HAS SEVERAL EVENTS OF NOTE...
IN 1998, THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM MITCH PRODUCED AN
F1 TORNADO WHICH DID $100K DAMAGE IN ISLAMORADA, AN F0 TORNADO
PRODUCING $50K DAMAGE IN ROCK HARBOR, AND AN F2 TORNADO WHICH DID
$25.0M DAMAGE AND CAUSED 20 INJURIES IN KEY LARGO.
IN 1935, A WEAKENING HURRICANE MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST OVER EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF KEY WEST, WHERE A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.68" AND A PEAK WIND OF 36 (UNITS UNKNOWN)
WERE RECORDED.
IN 2022, A WATERSPOUT OUTBREAK OCCURRED NEAR THE WESTERNMOST
LOWER KEYS FROM 1658-1808L, WITH A FAMILY OF 12 WATERSPOUTS
OBSERVED. THE FIRST TWO WERE REPORTED ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF BOCA
CHICA AT 1658L AND ADDITIONAL ONES CONTINUED FORMING ALONG A CLOUD
LINE THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT 28 MILES SW OF KEY
WEST. THE WIDEST WATERSPOUT FORMED ALONG A KINK IN THE CLOUD LINE
WHERE IT SHIFTED MORE WSW. THIS SPOUT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED FEET WIDE, LASTED OVER 30 MINUTES, AND THE
CONDENSATION CLOUD EXTENDED ABOUT A THIRD OF THE WAY FROM THE
CLOUD BASE TO THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE OTHER CONDENSATION CLOUDS
ONLY EXTENDED A QUARTER OF THE WAY FROM CLOUD BASE TO THE HORIZON.
TWO ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF KEY WEST
BETWEEN 1836-1846L, ALSO WITH THE CONDENSATION CLOUD ONLY
EXTENDING A QUARTER OF THE WAY DOWN FROM THE CLOUD BASE...
BRINGING THE TOTAL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO 14 WATERSPOUTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 75 81 75 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 80 74 82 74 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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