997
FXUS62 KKEY 041812
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
112 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH BROADLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT WEAKER
ON GULF AND BAY WATERS, WHERE ONLY CAUTIONS ARE ADVERTISED.
-BREEZES WILL SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PUSHES OUT ONTO THE ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE, BROADLY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS THE KEYS
IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY ZONE. THERE IS HIGHER MOISTURE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS AND OUT TO THE BAHAMAS. PWAT
VALUES HERE ARE BEING ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES.
CLOSER TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AND TO THE NORTH, THE PWAT VALUES ARE
LOWER BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS MAKING FOR A DECENT
GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. KBYX RADAR
HAS BEEN DETECTING SHOWERS ALL NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FASHION. IN THE PAST HOUR, LIGHTNING WAS
OBSERVED RIGHT AT THE BORDER OF THE KEYS FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE SOUTH OF WOODS WALL EAST
CRACK. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LAST EVENING, BREEZY
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON GUSTING BETWEEN 19 TO 23 MPH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION, MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES.
FORECAST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE TO THE EAST THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH THE MARINE AREA HOLDING ONTO THE
STRONGER BREEZES UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR LATE
WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES,
ALBEIT, WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. BREEZES WILL PEAK AT NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING AND THEN MOST LIKELY LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND, EXPECT
FURTHER SLACKENING BREEZES TO LIGHT TO GENTLE. MOISTURE IS
LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS ON SOUTH FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TILL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN CREEPING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME A LITTLE BIT DEEPER LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES TICKING UP SLIGHTLY MORE (~20%).
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUTSIDE OF
TIMING FOR A POTENTIALLY POTENT COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT
WE KNOW RIGHT NOW IS EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS LEADING TO
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BREEZIER PERIOD, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
SIGNIFICANT DIP IN DEW POINTS (HUMIDITY). STAY TUNED AS THIS COULD
BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THE EXCEPTION BEING FLORIDA BAY AND
THE BAYSIDE/GULFSIDE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) REMAINS HEADLINED FOR
FLORIDA BAY AND THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, BREEZES
SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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