879
FXUS62 KKEY 050927
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
427 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES TODAY WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT.
-BREEZES WILL FURTHER SLACKEN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
-A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PRESS
THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, SIGNIFICANT DROP IN HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
IT HAS BEEN A RATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN FESTERING JUST
OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GOES EAST
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE KEYS STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED STILL,
TEMPERATURES HAVEN'T MOVED ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH IS ABOUT TO MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING COMPARED TO THE STRENGTH IT WAS AT LAST NIGHT AND
EARLIER TODAY. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES.
FORECAST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
IT DOES SO, IT WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
WEEK. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR THE
ISLAND CHAIN FOR LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, ALBEIT, WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING AND THEN MOST LIKELY
LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING OUT TO SEA
OVER THE WEEKEND, EXPECT FURTHER SLACKENING BREEZES TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE. MOISTURE IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS
ON SOUTH FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST TILL THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN CREEPING BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME A LITTLE BIT DEEPER
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES TICKING UP
SLIGHTLY MORE (~20%). HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE AGAIN
LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES RATHER WEAK OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOSENS IT GRIP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A
LACKLUSTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED TO SEE
INCREASED HUMIDITY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
LOWER 80S POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME MID 80S. WITH THE WEAK FLOW, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE A
SMALL TASTE OF SUMMERY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
POTENTIALLY POTENT COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT
NOW IS EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS LEADING TO ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD, COOLER TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY
MUCH COOLER), AND ALSO A SIGNIFICANT DIP IN DEW POINTS
(HUMIDITY). STAY TUNED AS THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BLOW
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
AND SEAS SUBSIDE IS HEADLINED FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IS HEADLINED
FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THEREAFTER, BREEZES SLACKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS. A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE KEYS TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESHENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
DESPITE BOUTS OF BKN CEILINGS BASED AT AROUND 045, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALONG WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN CHANCES. NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES WILL REMAINED SUSTAINED AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1951, A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED HAIL SMALLER THAN
3/4" IN KEY WEST, ALONG WITH A DAILY-RECORD 3.09" OF RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 74 79 75 / 0 10 10 10
MARATHON 79 74 79 74 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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