411
FXUS62 KKEY 060322
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN WINDS
TRENDING DOWNWARDS.
-BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FURTHER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL
DRIVE THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY BRING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH BREEZY/WINDY NORTHERLIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES HAS QUICKLY SQUASHED A FORMERLY ROBUST HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT, NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
BREEZES HAVE RELAXED QUITE A BIT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENING AND ARE NOW LIGHT TO GENTLE. MEANWHILE, MESSY
LOWER LEVEL REMAINS OVERHEAD AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A ROBUST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 850 MB. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.57 INCHES,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND ONLY A SMATTERING OF
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO LINGER OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY, HOWEVER, DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF DRAWING A RIVER OF SATURATED MID AND UPPER LEVELS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE WEAK RIDGE WILL JUST MANAGE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
SLACKENING OF BREEZES ALONG THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOISTURE TRENDS UPWARDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. DESPITE THIS, THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
ALONG WITH THE SLACKENING FLOW AND NO LIFT JUSTIFIES KEEPING OUT
MENTION OF POPS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING NEAR 70.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
BREEZES RELAXING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES MADE
IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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