645
FXUS62 KKEY 060810
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOCKING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES MAY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONAL BATTLE OF AIR MASSES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOCKED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 00Z EVENING
SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BASED AT AROUND
850 MB, CAPPED BY A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION JUST ABOVE. THE
SOUNDING ALSO HIGHLIGHTED A RELATIVELY THICK CIRROSTRATUS DECK,
CONSISTENT WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF. KBYX RADAR IS
DETECTING SOME METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS DOTTING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS, ALTHOUGH MOST
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AT THIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOUR.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS GENERALLY ROUTINE. A SECONDARY
HIGH WILL REPLACE THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES AND GENERALLY LOW MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF. MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE LOW OPENING UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, THEN PROPAGATING EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE KEYS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPORT SYNOPTIC LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER
WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THESE
COMPETING FACTORS, DID ELECT TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD TO LOW-END
CHANCE LEVELS FOR THESE PERIODS (30%), ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR
MODEL- TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO- RUN TRENDS.
THE MAJOR WEATHER STORY WILL BE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE EAST COAST, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS, ON
MONDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S ADJACENT
TO THE KEYS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT TURBULENT MIXING OF
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. WINDY CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE LOCALS WITH A TASTE
OF FLORIDA WINTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE AND BREEZES SLACKEN THEREAFTER, AS THE ASSOCIATED HIGH
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE SYSTEMS SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WEAKENS, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN
FURTHER. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED
IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES AS
EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
DESPITE BOUTS OF BKN CEILINGS BASED AT AROUND 050, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALONG WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AROUND 10%. MAINLY
NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAINED SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2019, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88F WAS
LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 75 84 75 / 10 20 30 30
MARATHON 82 75 83 75 / 10 20 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT/MJV
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