782
FXUS62 KKEY 061921
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOCKING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLACKENING TREND NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEMS SLIDE FURTHER
EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
WEAKENS, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES
ON MONDAY, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MTH
TERMINAL AND PETER OUT TOWARDS SUNSET. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONAL BATTLE OF AIR MASSES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOCKED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 00Z EVENING
SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BASED AT AROUND
850 MB, CAPPED BY A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION JUST ABOVE. THE
SOUNDING ALSO HIGHLIGHTED A RELATIVELY THICK CIRROSTRATUS DECK,
CONSISTENT WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF. KBYX RADAR IS
DETECTING SOME METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS DOTTING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS, ALTHOUGH MOST
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AT THIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOUR.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS GENERALLY ROUTINE. A SECONDARY
HIGH WILL REPLACE THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES AND GENERALLY LOW MEASURABLE RAIN
CHANCES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF. MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE LOW OPENING UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, THEN PROPAGATING EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE KEYS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPORT SYNOPTIC LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER
WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THESE
COMPETING FACTORS, DID ELECT TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD TO LOW-END
CHANCE LEVELS FOR THESE PERIODS (30%), ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR
MODEL- TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO- RUN TRENDS.
THE MAJOR WEATHER STORY WILL BE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE EAST COAST, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS, ON
MONDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S ADJACENT
TO THE KEYS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT TURBULENT MIXING OF
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. WINDY CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE LOCALS WITH A TASTE
OF FLORIDA WINTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE AND BREEZES SLACKEN THEREAFTER, AS THE ASSOCIATED HIGH
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 84 75 85 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON 75 83 75 84 / 20 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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