410
FXUS62 KKEY 070301
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1001 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOCKING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLACKENING TREND IN NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
ANY STARGAZERS IN THE KEYS WILL BE DISAPPOINTED TONIGHT AS A
THICK BLANKET OF DEBRIS CLOUD WASHES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. SURPRISINGLY PERSISTENT SHOWERS
WERE KEPT SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
THE EVENING KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH A WELL
DEFINED INVERSION NEAR 6000 FT, AN OBSERVATION SUPPORTED BY
CLOUD MEASUREMENTS AT BOTH EYW AND MTH. ACROSS THE KEYS,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. MORE NOTABLY, NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE SLACKENING AND
BEGINNING TO VEER EASTERLY.
OVERNIGHT, A CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SURGE
INTO THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES STARTING TOMORROW. IMPACTS FOR
THE KEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW THE WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT. BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DELMARVA IS FORCED OFFSHORE. IN RESPONSE,
WINDS WILL START TO VEER EASTERLY, POSSIBLY SOUTHEASTERLY. CAMS
MODELS SUGGESTS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KEY WEST.
THUS, MAINTAINING THE 20 PERCENT POPS AND MID 70S LOWS. ENJOY THE
TEMPERATE CONDITIONS, RELATIVE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, WHILE THEY
LAST. THAT ARCTIC AIR BURST WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY
SOON ENOUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SYSTEMS SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WEAKENS,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PERIODS OF
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER EASTERLY AND SLACKEN DURING
THE PERIOD. SHOWER COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOUTH OF EYW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE
VCSH IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 84 75 85 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON 75 83 75 84 / 20 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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