323
FXUS62 KKEY 071010
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
510 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOCKING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLACKENING TREND IN NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
COMPOSITE TROPOSPHERIC AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF, IMPINGING ON THE FLORIDA
KEYS. AT THE SURFACE, A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SYNOPTIC FLOW. KBYX RADAR IS HIGHLIGHTING A
FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STAGNANT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER CHALLENGING.
ALL AVAILABLE STATISTICAL NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE WET, GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT. OUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL EXPERTISE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE,
SUPPORTED BY A SAMPLED SURFACE TO 900 MB DRY-ADIABATICALLY MIXED
PROFILE. WE WILL ROLL WITH CHANCE LEVEL POPS TODAY, WITH A
POTENTIAL BOOM OR BUST RAINFALL FORECAST (ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT EITHER WAY).
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE STRONG EARLY-SEASON COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO ROLL THROUGH THE KEYS ON MONDAY, WITH COOL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS, WE EXPECT BOUTS OF LOW CIRROSTRATUS DECKS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SYSTEMS SLIDE FURTHER EASTWARD
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WEAKENS,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PERIODS OF
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
MAINLY AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. VCSH WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS A RESULT AND MAY BE ADDED IN IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5
TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, POTENTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2015, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE
EVER RECORDED IN NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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