835
FXUS62 KKEY 071544
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOCKING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLACKENING TREND IN NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
INCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN FEATURES AND WE HAVE BEEN
PLACED INTO A COL REGION. EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST, WHILE FOR THE OTHER HALF OF OUR CWA,
WE HAVE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS AT OUR MARINE PLATFORMS.
MEANWHILE, A REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OUT
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OVERHEAD A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS. KBYX RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT NO PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN BUT TO THE WEST OUT BY THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY. WHERE WE HAVE MOISTURE, LIFT, VEERING,
AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT, WE HAVE SEEN ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THESE WATERS. CHANGES MADE WERE TO SCALE BACK POPS FOR THE
ISLAND CHAIN TODAY, WHILE STILL KEEPING KEY WEST AND THE LOWER
KEYS AS HAVING THE "BEST" CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT BREEZES SLACKENING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PERIODS OF
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. SHOWERS WEST OF THE EYW TERMINAL MAY TREND
EASTWARD OVER TIME AND COULD ON OCCASION PASS OVER THE TERMINAL.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS LESSENED AND WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF VCSH
FOR EYW, BUT WILL TAKE OUT OF MTH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MTH WHILE WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT EYW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 76 85 75 / 50 40 20 10
MARATHON 80 76 84 75 / 40 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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