832
FXUS62 KKEY 071954
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
254 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOCKING IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLACKENING TREND IN NORTHEAST TO
EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
BREEZES SLACKENING AND POTENTIALLY BECOMING VARIABLE ARE TIMES. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES
ON MONDAY, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN.
HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL FLUCTUATE AT TIMES FROM ENE TO
ESE. THE THREAT FOR VCSH HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED AND WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EYW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025 COMPOSITE TROPOSPHERIC AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF, IMPINGING ON THE FLORIDA KEYS. AT THE SURFACE, A
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. KBYX RADAR IS HIGHLIGHTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
STAGNANT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER CHALLENGING.
ALL AVAILABLE STATISTICAL NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE WET, GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT. OUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL EXPERTISE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE,
SUPPORTED BY A SAMPLED SURFACE TO 900 MB DRY-ADIABATICALLY MIXED
PROFILE. WE WILL ROLL WITH CHANCE LEVEL POPS TODAY, WITH A
POTENTIAL BOOM OR BUST RAINFALL FORECAST (ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT EITHER WAY).
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE STRONG EARLY-SEASON COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO ROLL THROUGH THE KEYS ON MONDAY, WITH COOL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS, WE EXPECT BOUTS OF LOW CIRROSTRATUS DECKS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 85 75 85 / 30 20 10 10
MARATHON 75 83 75 84 / 20 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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