840
FXUS62 KKEY 080314
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT SLACKENING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES THIS WEEKEND.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS.
-CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON MONDAY, USHERING MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER IS COMING TO AN UNEVENTFUL CLOSE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEEN EYED OBSERVERS OF THE KBYX RADAR
RETURNS MAY NOTICE SOME NORTHEASTWARD MOVING RETURNS OVER THE
OUTER GULF. THAT WOULD BE WEAK SHOWERS OR VIRGA FROM A THICK LAYER
OF STRATOCUMULUS HIGHLIGHTED BY GOES-E NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
OBSERVATIONS. SURPRISINGLY, THESE WEAK ECHOES ARE THE ONLY SURFACE
REFLECTION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWED A VEERING
WIND PROFILE, USUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION, AND A PWAT
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE EVENING. DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
PROBLEM IS A PLUME OF DRY AIR CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 4,000 AND
10,000 FT. LOW LEVEL WARMING AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
QUIET IS NOT AN APT DESCRIPTOR FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A SHARP, WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE KEYS ENOUGH TO SEE LIGHT BREEZES OVER THE GULF. MEANWHILE, A
SMALLER CLIPPER LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FORCE A LARGE ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT STATISTICAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
MONDAY. UNTIL THEN, ENJOY THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT BREEZES SLACKENING AND POTENTIALLY BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED
IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
SLACKEN. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY. EXPECT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
SHIFTS DURING THE DAY AND EAST NORTHEASTERLIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE THREAT FOR
VCSH IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH EYW AND MTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 85 75 85 / 30 20 10 10
MARATHON 75 83 75 84 / 20 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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