087
FXUS62 KKEY 080922
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
422 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND EXPECTED ACROSS THE KEYS.
-SEASONAL KING TIDES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BOUTS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS.
-A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WE
GET ANOTHER TASTE OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. KBYX RADAR HAS DETECTED
SHOWERS ACROSS STRAITS OF THE FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR TO TWO HOURS. THE
MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY REMAINED JUST OUTSIDE THE COVERAGE AREA
JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SHOWS MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LEAVING THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDER
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS PROMOTING MAINLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF NEAR 5 KNOTS AT MARINE PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN.
FORECAST
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE KEYS LENDING TO
AN UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND IN TERMS OF WEATHER. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HIGH HUMIDITY YET
AGAIN AS THE KEYS GET ANOTHER GASP OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
MAKING THOSE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 90 DEGREES. THEREFORE,
THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS
SUMMER CONTINUES. SINCE THERE WILL BE WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
WINDS ALSO MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY RIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER (I.E. SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT)
APPROACHES THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE BLEAK ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE LIGHT FLOW, SOME PUFFY CLOUD-LINE LIKE STREAMERS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SUN WORKS TO BAKE THE
ISLAND CHAIN. SLIGHT MOISTURE IS RETURN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCES.
THE FUN BEGINS COME MONDAY WHEN THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT "BRING-IT"
FRONT APPROACHES AND PLOWS ITS WAY THROUGH THE KEYS. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THIS FRONT MAKES IT ALL THE DOWN TO ALMOST JAMAICA!
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN 4 THINGS:
1. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO LATE TUESDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BREEZES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
2. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES (LOWS 55-60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT MONDAY
NIGHT). THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME RECORD LOWS
AND EVEN RECORD COLD HIGHS MIGHT BE CHALLENGED TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TWO THINGS THAT COULD MAKE THIS
CHALLENGING IS THAT THE WATERS ARE STILL QUITE WARM SURROUNDING
THE KEYS AND IT IS STILL EARLY ON IN THE SEASON. WE WILL BE
DEFINITELY WATCHING THIS AS IT COULD BE CLOSE.
3. SIGNIFICANT DROP IN HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS MAY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S). WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DEW POINTS
POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S!
4. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCARCE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN NIL RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS ONGOING. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS IT
HEADS OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC MID WEEK RESULTING IN SLOWLY
SLACKENING BREEZES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW MOST LIKELY RESULTING IN
NOTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN THE PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THE BETTER RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE STRAITS WHERE THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT DEEPER. THAT IS NOT TO SAY A
SHOWER OR TWO MAY NOT STRAY NORTHWARD TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, POTENTIALLY BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES
ON MONDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TODAY. NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAVE ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF EITHER
TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1951, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 77 85 74 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON 85 77 85 74 / 10 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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