101
FXUS62 KKEY 131541
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT BRINGING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
-DRYING AND FRESHENING BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THIS MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS, MOST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS WEST
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS LOADED WITH PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A PSUEDO-WARM FRONT. AT THE SURFACE WE REMAIN
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST BUT ALOFT WE QUICKLY GO SOUTHEAST, THEN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS VEERING PROFILE HAS LENT ITSELF TO ALLOW
FOR A VERY FEW SELECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SAVING GRACE FOR NOW IS THAT WE HAVE JUST A TAD BIT TOO MUCH SHEER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS LIMITING THE ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION. WHAT SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS
LAST ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 30 MINUTES BEFORE GETTING THEIR TOPS
SHEERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS AND A SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. LASTLY, WE'RE
KEEPING AN EYE ON A SHORTWAVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WHICH IS A
REMNANT ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A WET AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE UPPED
POPS FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE, THE LOWER KEYS WILL LIKELY BE FIRST IN LINE
TO SEE PRECIPITATION REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN, FOLLOWED BY THE
MIDDLE KEYS, AND LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET FOR THE
UPPER KEYS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE NEAR 70F,
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ALONG THE REEF ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, DRIVEN BY HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THIS GRADIENT IS STRONGEST OVER THE WATER CURRENTLY ACCOUNTING FOR
THESE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE REEF AND OFFSHORE. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED ON
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY, WHILE LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
LIMITED. KBYX RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE DISTANT
STRAITS, THOUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS REMAINED GENERALLY RAIN-FREE
OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SLACKEN THIS
MORNING, THEREFORE THE HEADLINE "SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
UNTIL WINDS DECREASE" IS IN PLACE FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS
OF FLORIDA UNTIL THOSE WINDS COME DOWN EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN
THE DAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS WILL DRIVE A FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING TONIGHT AT 80%.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH STARTING
LATE SUNDAY MORNING RAPIDLY DRYING OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. POST- FRONTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT TIGHTENS. MID-WEEK, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL (~10%) WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASING, FIRST FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO FRESH FOR MOSTLY
THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WATERS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WILL PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MARINERS AND BOATERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND CONFUSED SEAS IN AND AROUND
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET WITH A
THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS IN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, HOWEVER, MONITORING CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE EYW TERMINAL. THIS LINE IS
INCHING NORTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME, WILL
KEEP MENTIONS OF TS LIMITED TO TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED. HOWEVER,
WILL LIKELY NEED TO INTRODUCE VCTS TOWARDS SUNSET AS COVERAGE
INCREASES FOR BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION,
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 71 80 67 / 40 80 40 20
MARATHON 79 71 78 67 / 40 80 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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